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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2021-09-23T05:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2021-09-23T05:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/17810/-1
CME Note: CME SE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and SW in COR2A. Source: 2.8 class flare in AR 2871 with location S22E28 and eruption seen in AIA 193 and EUVI A 195 extending from AR 2871 NE and SW, with dimming and post-eruptive archades. The CME arrival at L1 is denoted by the increase in magnetic field (B total increase to above 10nT, magnetic field rotation (Bz stayed mostly positive, a clear flux rope is observed) and decrease in ion temperature.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2021-09-26T23:00Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 3.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-09-27T15:00Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 2.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

NASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: low2 (256x30x90)
Ambient settings: a3b1f
WSA version: 2.2
(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)

Prediction method note:
https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/17809/1

Model Inputs:
CME Analysis: Lon.=-32.0, Lat.=-14.0, Speed=300.0, HalfAngle=48.0, Time21.5=2021-09-23T16:44Z

Model Outputs:
Earth Impact:
Minor impact at Earth with Shock Arrival Time = 2021-05-27T15:00Z (+- 7 hours)
Possible Kp index:
(kp)90=3
(kp)135=3
(kp)180=2

Other Location(s) Impact:
Parker Solar Probe with estimated shock arrival time 2021-09-26T13:32Z
Solar Orbiter with estimated shock arrival time 2021-09-25T17:39Z
STEREO A with estimated shock arrival time 2021-09-27T07:00Z (Glancing Blow)

http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210923_164400_2.0_afwa_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210923_164400_2.0_afwa_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210923_164400_2.0_afwa_anim.tim-pdyn.gif


Inner Planets
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210923_164400_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210923_164400_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210923_164400_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210923_164400_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210923_164400_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210923_164400_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif


Timelines
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210923_164400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210923_164400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 74.38 hour(s)
Difference: -16.00 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) on 2021-09-23T20:37Z

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